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MAYBANK INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD
(formerly known as Aseambankers Malaysia Berhad)
Equity Focus
Bumiputra-Commerce Hldgs (RM6.45): Fully Valued
Final results disappointed
2008 net profit of RM1.95b (-30% YoY) disappointed, due to losses at insurance, BankThai, Niaga-Lippo merger cost, and higher provision.
We lowered our earnings forecasts by 8% for 2009 and 4% for 2010, on flat capital market activities in 2009 and after numbers fine-tune.
Fully Valued with a revised TP of RM5.40 (previously RM5.20) pegging the stock on 1x P/B (2009), after rolling over our valuation period.
Ann Joo Resources (RM1.18): Fully Valued
Steep 4Q08 loss, RM335m writedown
Steep 4Q08 net loss of RM195.8m was unexpected, with heavier than expected inventory writedown totalling RM335m as scrap cost was marked down to a low of USD280/t. No final DPS was declared.
We expect capacity utilization of 67-75% over 2009-10, and have trimmed net earnings forecasts by 26-29% p.a., assuming average selling price of USD550/t p.a..
Downgrade to Fully Valued from Hold, with a revised TP of RM1.02, noting possible further writedowns given steel price volatility throughout the next quarter and low demand visibility.
Tanjung Offshore (RM0.745): Trading Buy
Strong 4Q08; surprised with a 6 sen DPS
4Q08 net profit of RM13.6m (+168% QoQ) was above our expectation. TOFF also surprised with a DPS of 6sen DPS (8% yield).
Maintain a two-year net profit CAGR of 18%, underpinned by progressive delivery of six new vessels and strong engineering equipment & maintenance outstanding orderbook in FY09-10.
Maintain RM1.00 TP (0.7x BV) but tactically upgrade to Trading Buy on attractive dividend payouts and near-rock bottom valuations.
YNH Property (RM0.995): Hold
Another disappointing quarter
2008 net profit of RM86m (+7.4% YoY) disappointed as sales recognition slowed to RM34.3m (-68.2% YoY, -57.1% QoQ) in 4Q08.
Amid worsening economic conditions domestically and globally, we foresee slimmer chance of YNH sealing the KFH deal in 2009.
We downgrade YNH to Hold and cut our net profit forecasts by 20-34% for FY09-10. TP cut to RM1.00 based on unchanged 6x CY10 EPS.
Result Analyser
Amway (M) Hldgs (RM7.10): Hold
Sub-par 4Q08
Other Local News
Cabinet: To ease Bumi equity rules
EPIC, AZRB: Denies knowledge of any privatization talk
AirAsia: Needs RM13b funding
Can-One: To buy Kian Joo's 32.% stake
Mudajaya: To inject RM718m into 2nd phase IPP venture
Water: Selangor reiterates RM5.9b offer – Khalid
Outside Malaysia
U.S: Stocks fall, sending market to its lowest close since 1997
U.S: Regulators pledge more money for banks as stress tests set to begin
U.S: Fed may need to recast plan to resuscitate commercial-mortgage bond market
S. Korea: Consumer Confidence index rises on Government spending pledge
Thailand: Economy shrinks more than expected on exports
Technicals
The local bourse closed mixed as investors remained on the sideline ahead of the last week of the reporting season of possibly weaker corporate earnings.
(formerly known as Aseambankers Malaysia Berhad)
Equity Focus
Bumiputra-Commerce Hldgs (RM6.45): Fully Valued
Final results disappointed
2008 net profit of RM1.95b (-30% YoY) disappointed, due to losses at insurance, BankThai, Niaga-Lippo merger cost, and higher provision.
We lowered our earnings forecasts by 8% for 2009 and 4% for 2010, on flat capital market activities in 2009 and after numbers fine-tune.
Fully Valued with a revised TP of RM5.40 (previously RM5.20) pegging the stock on 1x P/B (2009), after rolling over our valuation period.
Ann Joo Resources (RM1.18): Fully Valued
Steep 4Q08 loss, RM335m writedown
Steep 4Q08 net loss of RM195.8m was unexpected, with heavier than expected inventory writedown totalling RM335m as scrap cost was marked down to a low of USD280/t. No final DPS was declared.
We expect capacity utilization of 67-75% over 2009-10, and have trimmed net earnings forecasts by 26-29% p.a., assuming average selling price of USD550/t p.a..
Downgrade to Fully Valued from Hold, with a revised TP of RM1.02, noting possible further writedowns given steel price volatility throughout the next quarter and low demand visibility.
Tanjung Offshore (RM0.745): Trading Buy
Strong 4Q08; surprised with a 6 sen DPS
4Q08 net profit of RM13.6m (+168% QoQ) was above our expectation. TOFF also surprised with a DPS of 6sen DPS (8% yield).
Maintain a two-year net profit CAGR of 18%, underpinned by progressive delivery of six new vessels and strong engineering equipment & maintenance outstanding orderbook in FY09-10.
Maintain RM1.00 TP (0.7x BV) but tactically upgrade to Trading Buy on attractive dividend payouts and near-rock bottom valuations.
YNH Property (RM0.995): Hold
Another disappointing quarter
2008 net profit of RM86m (+7.4% YoY) disappointed as sales recognition slowed to RM34.3m (-68.2% YoY, -57.1% QoQ) in 4Q08.
Amid worsening economic conditions domestically and globally, we foresee slimmer chance of YNH sealing the KFH deal in 2009.
We downgrade YNH to Hold and cut our net profit forecasts by 20-34% for FY09-10. TP cut to RM1.00 based on unchanged 6x CY10 EPS.
Result Analyser
Amway (M) Hldgs (RM7.10): Hold
Sub-par 4Q08
Other Local News
Cabinet: To ease Bumi equity rules
EPIC, AZRB: Denies knowledge of any privatization talk
AirAsia: Needs RM13b funding
Can-One: To buy Kian Joo's 32.% stake
Mudajaya: To inject RM718m into 2nd phase IPP venture
Water: Selangor reiterates RM5.9b offer – Khalid
Outside Malaysia
U.S: Stocks fall, sending market to its lowest close since 1997
U.S: Regulators pledge more money for banks as stress tests set to begin
U.S: Fed may need to recast plan to resuscitate commercial-mortgage bond market
S. Korea: Consumer Confidence index rises on Government spending pledge
Thailand: Economy shrinks more than expected on exports
Technicals
The local bourse closed mixed as investors remained on the sideline ahead of the last week of the reporting season of possibly weaker corporate earnings.
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